What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Everyone here seems to think it's coming, but how will you know that it has arrived?

-DJIA falls below a certain point?
-PM prices reach a certain point?
-PM seizure (a la 1933)
-oil reaches a certain point?
-failure of a certain business?
-political tomfoolery (i.e. assassination, delayed elections, war with Iran)?
-food shortages?
-climatological phenomena?
-a visit from the Annunaki? :D
- ???

What event(s) will have to occur to make you realize that the S has truly HTF?

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

When it happens, you won't have any questions about it. Just look out below.....:evil::evil::thumbs do

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

having to eat canned haggis

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

.....that a fine individual such as yourself feels compelled to register with this truly great site and ask this question....seriously. Think about it.
Welcome, by the way!

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

When 90 percent of the herd are walking around shoeless you will know the shtf for real

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

You forgot terrorist actions and gun seizures.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

For me, it would be when, like during the last great depression, you go to work and there is a sign that you are locked out; that when you go to the bank, you can't withdraw your cash, and if and when you can, it's gone; when unemployment is so high people have to travel state to state to find work and send the money home, when you barely have enough to eat, and there is little money to be had, when you can't afford to go the Doctor, basically, to me, it would be a repeat of the last great depression, and/or a war on our soil or perpetual war, it could be inflationary (is right now in prices for food/energy/taxes/insurance), it could be deflationary (is partially right now in housing and junk) but in the end, it wouldn't matter, the working people have lost their whole life savings, employment opportunities and the roof over their heads---that is TSHTF to me.

It may not happen suddenly, although with another SM crash or other shenanigans it absolutely could--we'll just keep circling the drain and get taken out of the remaining productive economy family-by-family, one-by-one, until the numbers are sky high (barring an immediate SM crash or other catastophe).

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Martial Law in the USA....

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Well I don't think we are even close to the feeling we will have when TSHTF. We might be close according to time but how we feel now is nothing compared.

I think when the media and even those people who don't follow politics who still think we are living in prosperous times comes to the realization that we are toast. Not just a simple economic slowdown but 95% of Americans fear the inevitable and it is in our news programs day in and day out. Every time you turn on the news it is about the failed economy, what to do, how to survive...

But to get to this point I think we need to hit some serious milestones. I think the biggest thing will be if people are working... People out of jobs is not good...

Unemployment rates hit 15% maybe... or higher.

Trucks distributing food to local grocery stores park their rigs because gas is too high and/or businesses fail...

People are out of a job and they see food prices soaring...

A lot of this has started but when it isn't just watching this on TV about your country and it includes everybody then we will know "toast"

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Can you please explain this further? You are describing (in this statement, literally taken) my life over the past 30 years (sort of) and I enjoy the heck out of traveling.

TIA

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

TSHaHTF in places like Ohio, Michigan... and for those who cannot find decent work for respectable wages. It is now just a matter of degree.

Here is what I will expect. Since we have more sophisiticated technology, and since the money is unchecked, there will be a balatant power grab. When you see the Dept of Treasury usurp the power of Congress to appropriate funds, and when you see the president declare wars external and internal- without Congress, then you know the powers are shifting. When you have the government take your money from your employer before you ever see it, it is too late. When people don't respect truth or righteousness- instead seek self-gratification above all else, you know the end is near.

The brown stuff is spraying everywhere already. The next phase will be the rising tide. The fan will be short-circuited and people will think normalcy is returning. The reason the fan is not spraying at that point, will be because it is under the sludge. Few will be able to float on that sludge. The rest will drink deeply and die, or climb aboard the trusty ship BigBrother.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

collapse- financial or political------- leading to anarchy

war

major natural disaster- New Madrid type earthquake


s

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Lovely how far you took that... :no_ma:

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

long pork for dinner

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

The S will be hitting the fan when interest rates are 15-20%. Just think about where housing, the stock market and unemployment will be with those interest rates.

Jim�s Formula:
September 1, 2006

1. First interest rates rise affecting the drivers of the US economy, housing, but before that auto production goes from bull to a bear markets.
2. This impacts many other industries and the jobs report. An economy is either rising at a rising rate or business activity is falling at an increasing rate. That is economic law 101. There is no such thing in any market as a Plateau of Prosperity or Cinderella - Goldilocks situations.
3. We have witnessed the Dow rise on economic news indicating deceleration of activity. This continues until major corporations announced poor earnings, making the Dow fall faster than it rose, moving it deeply into the red.
4. The formula economically is inherent in #2 which is lower economic activity equals lower profits.
5. Lower profits leads to lower Federal Tax revenues.
6. Lower Federal tax revenues in the face of increased Federal spending causes geometric, not arithmetic, rises in the US Federal Budget deficit. This is also true for cities & States as it is for the Federal government.
7. The increased US Federal Budget deficit in the face of a US Trade Deficit increases the US Current Account Deficit.
8. The US Current Account Balance is the speedometer of the money exiting the US into world markets (deficit).
9. It is this deficit that must be met by incoming investment in the US in any form. It could be anything from businesses, equities to Treasury instruments. We are already seeing a fall off in the situation of developing nations carrying the spending habits of industrial nations; a contradiction in terms.
10. If the investment by non US entities fails to meet the exiting dollars by all means, then the US must turn within to finance the shortfall.
11. Assuming the US turns inside to finance all maturities, interest rates will rise with the long term rates moving fastest regardless of prevailing business conditions.
12. This will further contract business activity and start a downward spiral of unparalleled dimension because the size of US debt already issued is of unparalleled dimension.

Therefore as you get to #12 you are automatically right back at #1. This is an economic downward spiral.

I heard all this "slow business" as negative to gold talk in the 70s. It was totally wrong then. It will be exactly the same now.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

HERE is a report of every collapse in the history of the world. (MANUSCRIPT link on the right side.) You figure out which symptoms apply now.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

SHTF for me when the wiped-out middle class embraces radical changes because they had their way of life destroyed.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

That is so true. The wided out middle class falls for radical changes every time: Julius Caesar, Caesar Augustus, Napoleon, Lenin, Musolini, Hitler, etc...

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

TSHTF when your preps first begin to diminish, rather than accumulate. Everything else is vague.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

this is almost too funny. some anwers include

Martial Law in the USA.... (i assume all of USA), 90% people walking shoeless, ...

do you think the govt has enough people to institute martial law over more than 1 large (top 10) city? how many people have shoes? more than 1 pair of shoes? yeah those are TSHTF defining moments - but it aint gonna happen. there will not be TSHTF for the entire country (USA). answers like those give the entire concept a bad name.

what does TSHTF mean to mean? localized disasters of proportional size. localized martial law (maybe). nuclear/biological fallout (again this by nature is localized). and this problem will not be long term [except the last item] - and there will be lots of help after a few weeks.

you guys need to give human nature more credit. we are not all zombies with mob/looting mentality when something bad happens. anarchy will not last because its proven not to be effective.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

---------------------------
I've highlighted a few of your statements that amused me.

If we are just talking about an economic collapse, such as the depression, I think you are still way to optimistic in believing that it will not be long term (longer than 3 years). The more government tries to "fix" the problem the longer it will last. Just some basic comparisons with our last depression should give a hint of what we might be in for.

For example, much of the population back in the 1930's were still rural and knew how to grow and preserve food. We had a manufacturing base with which to build on. Families were much more intact and society was much more independent.

I would also look at Argentina's collapse in early 2000. If you have heard even a few of the stories that came out of that country, you might not be so optimistic regarding human behavior. If your wife and child were being raped perhaps your attitude might be different in regards to human nature. When people get scared, hungry and thirsty it changes them, and the lack of law enforcement will bring out the worst.

However, economic collapse isn't the SHTF I fear the most, but rather a coordinated attack on the U.S. by Islamic terrorists. The U.S. could be taken down with a 3 prong attack.

First take out our power grid. If an EMP is used, well we just entered the 1800's, but even if it is through computer controlled destruction of generators (these massive generators would take years to replace, we no longer make em here), we still would not be able to function. Everything we do is dependent of electricity. No refrigeration, no water wells, no sanitation, heat, and the list goes on.

Second, shut off our oil supply, everything from food service to the computer I am typing on is dependent on oil. No ability to produce food on a mass scale, and way to transport food to the cities would be unlike anything we have ever seen.

Third, nuclear bombs going off in the several cities, attacking our schools such as in Beslin would cripple our economy.

The "how to" knowledge of the pre-industrial age (built on oil and electricity) is foreign to most of our population. Hungry and thirsty people will leave the cities looking for food with no understanding of how to grow food or the means to do so.

Localized? Anarchy won't last? Help would soon come? I wouldn't bet on it.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Food shortages - looting - martial law - curfews - total gun confiscations - gasoline shortages

That is TSHTF... in no particular order.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Yup, when we start going backwards.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

I was under the impression that the shit has hit the fan already...

(seeing as how we live in a fascist dictatorship)


its just... this fan is one of those occilating fans, and at this moment it hasn't flung shit in our direction.

its coming...

its just weather or not you have the items in place to help deflect the shit coming your way. :tongue_ma:

good news is...we may not agree 100%, but I'm sure we could all band together if need be, to help each other maintain some kind of comfort. Birds of feather flock together, and I'm glad to know you all are spread out across the land.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

I'm sure :) Yes, nowdays it seems more Americans do travel for employment, I guess I'm thinking a real uptick, as in, husband's leaving their family behind (or women even) to find employment where ever it can be found, as in the last depression, and sending whatever they can back home to help out the family, transient work I guess is what I am saying. Sounds like you're an experienced gypsy already, looks like you're in the game. I'm sure some people wouldn't mind it as a lifestyle. A little hard on those with young children though to keep getting uprooted, although I knew some military brats in my youth that seemed to move a lot as well. Honesty, I think being a gypsy or traveling around the U.S. could have some advantages to those that aren't tied down, i.e., flexibility to make quick changes to "life plans" as necessary or as desired, the ability to make moves quickly.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Nobody knows what TSHTF means, although most preppers will be happy to make up something if asked. What they make up usually coincides with their hobby: gun collectors assume it will be a gun fight, campers assume it will involve living in the wilderness for a while, gardeners expect they won't be able to buy seeds any more, etc. If none of those conditions apply, it is possible that they won't even realize the collapse has happened.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

[If we are just talking about an economic collapse, such as the depression, I think you are still way to optimistic in believing that it will not be long term (longer than 3 years). The more government tries to "fix" the problem the longer it will last. Just some basic comparisons with our last depression should give a hint of what we might be in for. ]

if we have another 30s style depression - i dont think thats TSHTF. govts will intervene and try to help... and yes i tend to agree the more they help the more prolong the pain - but we are a socialist enough economy that the people on the bottom will survive - aka, i dont think people in USA will starve like we see the Africans starving.

[I would also look at Argentina's collapse in early 2000. If you have heard even a few of the stories that came out of that country, you might not be so optimistic regarding human behavior. If your wife and child were being raped perhaps your attitude might be different in regards to human nature. When people get scared, hungry and thirsty it changes them, and the lack of law enforcement will bring out the worst. ]

firstly, i dont think we will have an argentina, zimbabewe, [fill in your favorite failed countries here]. russian style failure im not sure i would consider TSHTF. as for those people i love being raped, killed, ... MY attitude would change, but that doesnt change the fact it has to be human nature to help others - humans are social animals, and in order for a group of animals to be social... there has to be organization, laws, rules,...; to help each other means everyone within the group is stronger than any individuals who are solo. we may have to re-learn that lesson again but sooner or later, that will be realized.


[However, economic collapse isn't the SHTF I fear the most, but rather a coordinated attack on the U.S. by Islamic terrorists. The U.S. could be taken down with a 3 prong attack. ]

agreed. BUT no one is powerful enough to take out every section of the US. or even 1 entire state (well maybe its possible to take out rhode island sized area). if such an event occurs. there would be massive help converging to that area - if possible. (if its not possible, ie - radiation, youd be too dead to care)

i believe an attack on us can be TSHTF only if it totally wipes us out - otherwise, it would turn to a pearl harbor or even the iraq war (at its initial stages where everyone was in agreement).

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Thanks for the clarification. Yes, my wife and I love the lifestyle-we have traveled the world since we were married (1994) and I had the same "wanderlust" when I started in this industry. Until we went to Japan for 2.5 years, we lived in a travel trailer (yes, we also had a couple of homes around the US we rented out, just in case "the next contract" took time to be arrainged), going from contract to contract and, while initially hesitant, she came to love it as I do. All my kids have been able to understand (from my first marraige) this, although I have to admit, I am getting old and slowing down a bit.

My point was to all this, in a single statement, "all you have to do to survive is to plan for that which you can control, save for the proverbial rainy day, and don't worry about what others do."

I LOVE being an IC.....hehehe

Best regards,

Bob

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

I like Claire Wolfe's quote: "America is at that awkward stage. It's too late to work within the system, but too early to shoot the bastards."

I define TSHTF as when it's no longer too early...

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Well, sounds like you have a lot of cool memories! And you kept life entertaining!

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

Yep-that's one nice thing about being a p***k. You only have to look at yourself in the mirror in the morning and accept yourself, the way you are. No one else's opinions matters.

Best regards,

Bob

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

mshen11, I agree with you that it would have to be a national attack for it to be a true SHTF situation. Which is why a EMP is likely the terrorist's primary goal even more than bombing a few cities. How close are they to doing so is he real question? Perhaps they never will be able to pull it off.

I would like to think that we would band together, "The strength of the wolf is the pack and the strength of the pack is the wolf" sounds good. I'm just not as optimistic about human nature as you are. :)

You commented that you don't believe that we are in for an "Argentina" type of collapse. Is that because you think the U.S. economy to big to fail? With over 9 trillion in debt (a total of 53 trillion when you look at off the book obligation), little manufacturing base, a growing energy problem that our leaders don't want to deal with, what indicators are you seeing that give you confidence?

If nano technology takes off in the next 10 years, that will revolutionize our manufacturing and help with our energy needs, but that could be a rough 10 years.

Re: What does SHTF mean to you?
 

[I would like to think that we would band together, "The strength of the wolf is the pack and the strength of the pack is the wolf" sounds good. I'm just not as optimistic about human nature as you are. :)]

not to go off topic. religion was created/invented to give such order. so was the concept of government. if it doesnt happen if TSHTF, the human race will disappear.



[You commented that you don't believe that we are in for an "Argentina" type of collapse. Is that because you think the U.S. economy to big to fail? With over 9 trillion in debt (a total of 53 trillion when you look at off the book obligation), little manufacturing base, a growing energy problem that our leaders don't want to deal with, what indicators are you seeing that give you confidence? ]

because we so just so big and everyone relies on us. the roman empire fell but they didnt have globalization and interdependence. if we fail, the world fails - and the world realizes this. thats why i ignore conspiracy theories such as china dumping all their USDs. that would be suicide. if we fail in a big way, the world will try to step in. of course i dont know how successful they may be (depends on the situation). maybe i see the good side of man.


[If nano technology takes off in the next 10 years, that will revolutionize our manufacturing and help with our energy needs, but that could be a rough 10 years.]

i agree BUT i doubt it will take off. i invested in that sector and gave up - its still in its infancy. its not going anywhere unless some university/college come up with a GIANT breakthrough. or in the field of AI.